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As I sat down late this Thursday evening to watch my recording of the Republic National Convention (yes, I am that guy who DVR’s political party conventions), a particular moment from CNN stood out: Immediately after Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech accepting the vice presidential nomination, members of the Arizona caucus were interviewed. One delegate (whose name was somehow never mentioned – way to go, CNN) threw his hands up in the air and shouted, “He made the right choice! Whoooo!”  Then he laughed, gleefully.

It was, needless to say, idiotic (though no less obtuse than Barrack Obama attempting to appeal  to working class voters by giving a speech in a football stadium filled with 80,000 people). But the reaction speaks volumes about the way that Palin’s nomination is being accepted by conservative stalwarts, and the way in which it might change the tone of the general election. I think it might be best to look at the hoopla surrounding Governor Palin from four angles.

First, two ways in which she helps McCain and the GOP:

1) She reignites the so-called “culture wars”: For the early part of the primary season – the part where no one has voted yet—McCain’s was pulling third or fourth in most major polls and his campaign teetered along while incurring massive debt. So how did he end up capturing the nomination? Simple: party fracture. Mike Huckabee took the socially conservative voters, Mitt Romney took the Wall Street Republicans, Fred Thompson took no one, and Rudy Giulianni captured the hawkish, national security vote. That left McCain, socially moderate and fiscally conservative, to sweep up independent voters in New Hampshire and catapult himself to victory. But McCain can hardly be described as popular with the conservative base. While republican party leaders were publically rallying to McCain as Obama and Hillary Clinton tore each other apart for five months, they were privately scrambling to deal with the fact that “values voters” were none too thrilled with McCain. It got to the point where James Dobson, founder of the super-conservative Focus on the Family group, was publically encouraging his supporters to vote for someone other than McCain. McCain, meanwhile, made a few half-hearted attempts to court conservatives, but was and is clearly uncomfortable with key conservative issues wedge issues like gay marriage and immigration.

But in steps Sarah Palin, a strict conservative who opposes abortion and gay marriage, and supports gun rights and strict immigration rules. She gives social conservatives a voice on the ticket, and stands to reenergize a deflated GOP base. McCain had been trying to make foreign policy the key issue of the campaign, but the simple reality is that the economy has become the most important issue for most voters in this election cycle, and that benefits Obama and Biden. George Bush somehow managed to do an even worse job with the national economy than he did with his numerous private business failures, and voters are not going to quickly forget that eight years of Republican governance has contributed to massive debt, widespread home foreclosure, rising unemployment, and high oil prices. The best way for the GOP to make voters forget about their economic woes is to turn the focus of the campaign back to the hot button social issues that Sarah Palin has staked a claim to.

2) She balances McCain’s ticket: Though there are legitimate questions about her role in a hiring/firing of state troopers scandal in Alaska, Palin was elected in the face of a republican political machine that has kept corrupt politicians like Sen. Ted Stevens in office for decades. The reform work that Palin undertook in her first two years as governor might help john McCain recapture his image as a “maverick,” or an independent voice. The only problem being that this forces Palin to wear two hats: She has to appeal to the social conservatives who were the heart of Bush’s 2004 reelection while still rallying against everyone’s favorite vague, indefinable political category: the Washington Elite. Republican voters can also be excited that McCain, who is 72 years old and has had four episodes of skin cancer, has added an image of youth to the ticket.   

And now two ways that Palin might hurt McCain’s chances come November:

1) Goodbye inexperience: McCain’s best (and really only) line of attack has been that Sen. Obama is too inexperienced to be an effective president. Indeed, from the moment it became obvious that Obama would be the nominee, Republicans have hammered him on the issue (even as recently as last month, when McCain argued that he alone has the experience to respond to an international crisis such as the one between Georgia and Russia). But Palin’s nomination effectively wipes out that line of argument, in that she has even less experience than Obama. She has been a governor for just two years, and was previously the mayor of a town with a population of less than 9,000. To spend months suggesting that it is irresponsible to elect and inexperienced politician to the presidency, and then do an about-face in selecting Palin smacks of inconsistency. To suggest that Palin’s time in Alaskan politics is even comparable to what Obama experienced as a state senator in a large, populace, and diverse state like Illinois is laughable. And as I mentioned above, McCain is 72 years old and has had serious health issues. Tactful or not, the question of whether McCain’s health might eventually prevent him from serving his full term is legitimate, and in turn begs the question of whether most Americans would feel comfortable with someone like governor Palin as the next president.

4) And hello gimmickry!: I may disagree with her on nearly every issue, but from all indications Palin is intelligent and personable, and handles herself quite well in the national spotlight (so far, at least). It’s a shame, then, that the first female republican vice presidential nominee will likely be saddled with the label of “gimmick.” And yet, that is exactly what McCain has done. The Clinton-Obama primary rightfully commanded a great deal of attention and media focus for its historic nature: an African American and a woman as major party candidates, both of whom happen to be two of the best candidates from the Democratic party in a generation. Republican party leaders will try to frame Palin’s nomination in similar terms, but the truth is that the whole thing feels like an obvious grab for disillusioned Clinton voters. I think that McCain underestimates even the most ardent Hillary supporter in thinking that all they want to see is a woman on a major ticket, no matter the party. It’s that sort of condescension that will likely keep many of the independent female voters from jumping onboard the GOP bus.

Need an example? Watch former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan and former McCain campaign strategist Mike Murphy complain about the Palin nomination when they thought their microphones were turned off on MSNBC:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrG8w4bb3kg